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Year : 2014  |  Volume : 51  |  Issue : 3  |  Page : 165-171

Emerging trends of malaria-dengue geographical coupling in the Southeast Asia region

1 School of Basic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Mandi, Himachal Pradesh, India
2 Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Correspondence Address:
Sarita Azad
Assistant Professor, School of Basic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Mandi-175 001, Himachal Pradesh
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None

PMID: 25253208

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Background & objectives: Malaria and dengue fever are the most common mosquito-borne diseases in the Southeast Asia region (SEAR). We analysed a temporal record of annual cases of malaria and dengue fever from 1985-2009 in SEAR. Methods: Data of dengue and malaria cases were obtained from WHO website for the period from 1985-2009. El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) fluctuation data were obtained from NOAA Climate Prediction Centre, Maryland. The wavelet analysis was conducted to analyse the data. Results: Results showed that multiyear cycles of malaria outbreaks appeared in 1986 and 1996, concomitant with the timing of dengue cases at one year lag. The dynamics of both cases pronounce a regime shift in the 1999, when the coupling between dengue and ENSO is also stronger. The statistical significance of this coupling is evident from wavelet band-averaged cross power in 2-4 yr scale (95% confidence level). Interpretation & conclusion: The present analysis suggests that the dengue incidence patterns in SEAR are periodic. There is not much evidence of malaria and ENSO having periodic association in the region; however, dengue fever and ENSO shows statistical significant cross-coherence in the 2-4 yr wavelet band and the results are statistically significant in the last decade. This study also provides statistical evidence of geographical clustering which quantitatively demonstrate the cross-country and cross-epidemic situations that exist across SEAR.

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