| RESEARCH ARTICLE |
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| Year : 2014 | Volume
: 51
| Issue : 3 | Page : 165-171 |
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Emerging trends of malaria-dengue geographical coupling in the Southeast Asia region
Sarita Azad1, Pietro Lio2
1 School of Basic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Mandi, Himachal Pradesh, India
2 Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Correspondence Address:
Sarita Azad
Assistant Professor, School of Basic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Mandi-175 001, Himachal Pradesh
India
 Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None  | Check |
PMID: 25253208 
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Background & objectives: Malaria and dengue fever are the most common mosquito-borne diseases in the Southeast Asia region (SEAR). We analysed a temporal record of annual cases of malaria and dengue fever from 1985-2009 in SEAR.
Methods: Data of dengue and malaria cases were obtained from WHO website for the period from 1985-2009. El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) fluctuation data were obtained from NOAA Climate Prediction Centre, Maryland. The wavelet analysis was conducted to analyse the data.
Results: Results showed that multiyear cycles of malaria outbreaks appeared in 1986 and 1996, concomitant with the timing of dengue cases at one year lag. The dynamics of both cases pronounce a regime shift in the 1999, when the coupling between dengue and ENSO is also stronger. The statistical significance of this coupling is evident from wavelet band-averaged cross power in 2-4 yr scale (95% confidence level).
Interpretation & conclusion: The present analysis suggests that the dengue incidence patterns in SEAR are periodic. There is not much evidence of malaria and ENSO having periodic association in the region; however, dengue fever and ENSO shows statistical significant cross-coherence in the 2-4 yr wavelet band and the results are statistically significant in the last decade. This study also provides statistical evidence of geographical clustering which quantitatively demonstrate the cross-country and cross-epidemic situations that exist across SEAR. |
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